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OUR RESEARCH

On this page, you’ll find synopses of our latest monthly reports. Each provides in-depth analysis of recent global macro events and their impacts, with clearly highlighted associated trade ideas. Exclusive JDI Research charts always complement our analysis, supporting you in trading with conviction.

Textbooks Not Tweets ...
... Your guide to trading Trump in 2025

Juliette Declercq

23rd January 2025

Ready for touchdown_edited.png

In this new report, we argue that investors success in 2025 stems from a deep understanding of the macroeconomic forces at work. Yes, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is an astute sailor, but the sea of markets is a cruel mistress.

JDI's 2025 Outlook:

Juliette Declercq

22nd December 2024

2025 JDI Research Outlook_edited.jpg

This December,  our full report takes the form of a webcast, covering 40 key charts likely to drive the global macroeconomic landscape in 2025 and define clear trading opportunities.
Beware, the level of uncertainty is high, but I trust that my framework will support you make the right investment decisions.

Who is the real election winner?
... Musk or the US economy?

Juliette Declercq

18th November 2024

Ready for touchdown_edited.png

A comprehensive analysis of the post-election likely macro backdrop and ramifications to markets.

Beware, the level of uncertainty is high, but I trust that the report will help you make the right investment decisions as we get increasing clarity on the political path ahead.

I will certainly continue updating you along the way. 


1. Everyone wants economic growth...
... But how much will they pay for it?

2.  Expect an immigration crackdown...
... With whiplash for wages and final demand

3.  Building a new kind of wall around the US...
... Are tariffs a key bargaining chip or a foolish bluff?

4.  Tax cuts and deregulations...
... Political promises hit the hard truths of reality

5.  Curbing the Fed's independence...
... and risk returning to the Dark Age of financial repression?

6.  Markets have caught Musk mania...
... But what is the prince of productivity really up to?

Election circus vs economic cycle …
... There is only one winner

Juliette Declercq

24th October 2024

Election circus vs economic cycle1.jpg

Extract of themes and topics covered and analysed in our October report:

 

1. Your usual dead-cat bounce, or a statistical miracle ...
... Has the US labour market really turned a corner?

2.  Consumer to the rescue ...
... But how long can income and spending prop up the economy?

Too little too late, or better late than never …
... The Fed is dancing with disaster

Juliette Declercq

12th September 2024

Too little too late, or better late than never_1.png

Extract of themes and topics covered and analysed in our September report:

 

1. Was US exceptionalism just a mirage?
... Recession alarm bells are clanging

2.  25bp or 50p on September 18th?
... FOMC members may need to smell fear to stop procrastinating

3. So what about outside the US?
... Recession bells are clanging there, too

From party poppers to cycle stoppers ...

... Take shelter as the US stutters

Juliette Declercq

10 July 2024

From party poppers to cycle stoppers ._e

Extract of themes and topics covered and analysed in our July report:

 

1. NFProblems: From a healthy rebalancing ...
... To more sinister late-cycle behaviour

2. "Don't short a dull market" ...
... But shield in TIPS until the storm passes

Between a rock and a hard place ...

Juliette Declercq

4 April 2024

joining the dots .jpeg

… Have the Fed creeps chosen the least painful mandate?

​1. The Fed's dovish stance ...
... Risks its inflation credibility to extend the business cycle

2. Now on high alert for a cyclical inflection ...
... Which will see the Fed compromise its values

Top pickers beware ...

Juliette Declercq

29 February 2024

top pickers beware .jpeg

… The bears are crying wolf

1. The emergence of a recession-proof asset class
... Reshuffles the cards of the normal path to recession

2. Global disinflation is dying
... Right when growth is reviving

Dormant or dodo?

Juliette Declercq

26 January 2024

dormant or dodo.jpeg

… Inflation is not extinct just yet.

1. Inflation: Dead or dormant?
... A deep dive into the Fed's reaction function

2. The Euro area recovers but remains a laggard
... Yet, the Fed will likely beat the ECB to the punch.

3. The Bank of England's credibility is the most at risk
... Rates are not restrictive, and is it even targeting 2%?

JDI Research 2024 Outlook

Juliette Declercq

19 December 2023

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

… 

Rates take five, markets revive ...

Juliette Declercq

20 November 2023

rates take five .png

… We can hit snooze on that hard landing.

1. Inflation vanishing act to reawaken the European consumer?
... With a 6-month lag to the US real income sweet spot

2. US: Beyond its economic sweet spot
... A sour aftertaste is the way off: Expect a slow landing 

Still Healing...

Juliette Declercq

13 October 2023

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

… A guide to the unending “pre-recessionary” economy

The agelong ascent to the summit...

Juliette Declercq

14 September 2023

The agelong ascent to the summit.jpeg

… Are restrictive rates finally in reach?

1. Is the Fed's terminal rate finally in sight?
... What will break the economy?

2. If the housing market does not trigger a recession...
... Surely the labour market will?

3. A second inflation wave in the offing?
... Soft landing is now off the cards

What landing?

Juliette Declercq

10 August 2023

What landing_.jpeg

Perhaps the recession is already in the rear-view mirror…

1. "Immaculate" disinflation: An obituary
... Fading base effects, stalling goods disinflation and stubborn services inflation

2. Soft landing? What landing?
... Perhaps the recession is already in the rear-view mirror

3. Primed and ready for a reset...
...Will it be the Fitch downgrade or the BoJ lighting the term-premia powder keg?

4. The UK epitomizes the world's inflation problem
... Markets are way too complacent with term premia there

All about wages...

Juliette Declercq

7 July 2023

All about wages .jpeg

… with wildly divergent trends from UK to Japan

1. Immaculate headline disinflation
..Just as I expected

2. Disinflation. Act1, Scene2: Pure pleasure
... Stabilising prices and persistent wage gains; Central Banks have achieved the paradoxical feat of stimulating demand with higher rates

3. Disinflation. Act 2, Scene 1: Gloom
... Just as we celebrate the Fed hitting the inflation target, a recession will start

The AI rat race has begun...

Juliette Declercq

6 June 2023

AI drives macro

… Here’s how investors can win it.

The benign Fed pivot is bygone

Juliette Declercq

5 May 2023

The early 2023

… Buckle up for a nasty Fed descent

A carry trade going wrong...

Juliette Declercq

31 March 2023

kissing goodbye

… the Fed swaps a banking heart attack for profitability cancer, but a credit crunch looms

Immaculate or Inaccurate?

Juliette Declercq

28 February 2023

will the 2023 demand

… Stay alert to the baffling macro transition between nominal and real growth – it will offer trading opportunities

Happy real income gains!

Juliette Declercq

23 January 2023

Just two weeks

… Stay alert to the baffling macro transition between nominal and real growth – it will offer trading opportunities

2023: What to watch to gain macro conviction?

Juliette Declercq

12 December 2022

Weak coincident

… What are the main risks to our outlook?

The double dream of delight ...

Juliette Declercq

11 November 2022

Please Someone

… Pricing two pivots into a 2023 soft landing

The USD black hole ...

Juliette Declercq

9 October 2022

USD liquidity

… The energy war is raging with perilous macro ramifications

Far from the madding crowd’s ignoble strife...

Juliette Declercq

8 September 2022

The main macro

… A soft landing stirs

The Bear With Another Bite ...

Juliette Declercq

25 July 2022

Bearish risk

… Watch out Goldilocks!

Summer Scorcher: Will a Hawkish Climax Cause a Heatstroke...

Juliette Declercq

30 June 2022

When fed's dual

… Or something more permanent?

Patience is bitter (and boring!), but its fruit is sweet...

Juliette Declercq

31 May 2022

Severe slowdown

… Shall we give macro a chance to rebalance Covid distortions?

Putin stirs up a macro storm...

Juliette Declercq

28 April 2022

The growth engine

… Is a global recession avoidable?

A fame, bello et peste, libera nos Domine:

Juliette Declercq

26 March 2022

Fed's reaction

“From famine, war and plague, deliver us o Lord”

The power of nominal illusion

Juliette Declercq

15 February 2022

China is turning

Yellen’s 1996 “greasing-the-wheel” observation makes perfect sense now!

Biden’s experiment with socialism...

Juliette Declercq

18 January 2022

Omicron has

Is there a happy ending?

Juliette’s crystal ball: 2022 in charts

Juliette Declercq

10 December 2021

inflation is always

...

From famine to unwanted feast?

Juliette Declercq

12 November 2021

inflation is increasingly

A 2022 preview…

The end is not yet nigh...

Juliette Declercq

10 October 2021

Oil topping $80

… This cycle has more to run (for now!)

Stagflation?

Juliette Declercq

6 September 2021

The global economy is losing

Get over it by asking for a pay rise…

Markets may have swallowed all the good news they can...

Juliette Declercq

12 July 2021

Economic data and

Time for a reset?

“We need to make sure we don’t repeat some of the errors we doubtless made”

Juliette Declercq

14 June 2021

Will china end .png

UK PM Johnson on 11th June 2021 at G7

Reflation or stagflation?...

Juliette Declercq

12 May 2021

Will china end

… Is a monster lurking in the wake of the pandemic?

The law of unintended consequences ...

Juliette Declercq

12 April 2021

Whilst globalisation

… or how macro trends led to a revolution of the financial world and the emergence of crypto finance.

The Tech sector loses its crown ...

Juliette Declercq

11 March 2021

Can equity indices

… but is it the end of the Growth sector Monarchy?

Climbing a wall of worries, part II...

Juliette Declercq

11 February 2021

Climbing a wall

Why neither Europe nor China truly threatens the global reflation outlook

2020 reflation tilt: flash in the pan or fully fuelled fire?

Juliette Declercq

15 January 2021

Don't fear steeper

....

We’ve failed to keep Gatsby’s green light flashing …

Juliette Declercq

9 December 2020

Exploding government

As a result, it’s payback time. Count on inequalities to become the key macro driver.

Let the good times roll ...

Juliette Declercq

10 November 2020

Our OECD

… Trump’s requiem

Forget the election …

Juliette Declercq

6 October 2020

Employment is a lagging

Live Long and Prosper

The September Issue

Juliette Declercq

7 September 2020

Our OECD

“Fashion is not about looking back. It’s always about looking forward” (Anna Wintour)

The Decline and Fall of the US Dollar...​

Juliette Declercq

29 July 2020

Is the near-decade

... (And how the world will prosper)

It’s still “just right” for Goldilocks ...​

Juliette Declercq

29 June 2020

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

... But the bowl won’t last forever

The moment of truth approaches A Leap of Faith to Better Days for the consumer?

Juliette Declercq

31 May 2020

Now what?

...

This too shall pass

Juliette Declercq

28 April 2020

US financial conditions

How fast? is the million-dollar question ...

La Casa De Papel

Juliette Declercq

30 March 2020

Chart 1: the first economics

...Is this the year when the ECB hikes or the one when the Fed cuts to 0?

2020: Like Buzz Leapyear, “To infinity and beyond!”

Juliette Declercq

11 February 2020

China Manufacturing

...

“All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds”

Juliette Declercq

14 January 2020

Chart 1: The manufacturing

...

2020 in 20 Charts...​

Juliette Declercq

10 December 2019

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

...Is this the year when the ECB hikes or the one when the Fed cuts to 0?

Up, up and away...​

Juliette Declercq

11 November 2019

Market Have gone

... a beautiful equity balloon

It’s break or bounce following the bend

Juliette Declercq

7 October 2019

Manufacturing is held down

...

“Change is the only constant”​

Juliette Declercq

1 September 2019

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

Heraclitus of Ephesus, ancient Greek philosopher

The Fed mandate: not so much MAGA...

Juliette Declercq

29 July 2019

Why should the fed cut

... but keeping America away from the precipice

With Trump in their corner, the Fed is on the ropes ...

Juliette Declercq

19 June 2019

World growth

... Will Powell throw in the towel?

“All trade wars are paper tigers”

Juliette Declercq

23 May 2019

Screenshot 2025-01-19 at 14.31.13.png

...

“The key is playing to win, instead of trying not to

lose,” Rachel advises in Crazy Rich Asians

Juliette Declercq

29 April 2019

Histogram of y/y

... Are the Fed and China both failing Rachel Chu’s game theory class?

What if socialism had no fiscal cost ...

Juliette Declercq

5 March 2019

Advance economies public

... but meant guaranteed political rewards?

Down the rabbit hole to the MAGA hatters tea party

Juliette Declercq

5 February 2019

The Fed Surrendered

The asset pump and the never-ending cycle...

“Patience is a virtue, one we can afford”

Juliette Declercq

14 January 2019

Screenshot 2025-01-17 aPowell's reactiont 18.02.47.png

What a difference a 10% equity dip makes in the Fed’s guidance!, but 2019 is not 2016...

The Central Banks dilemma: normalize or cue the revolution

Juliette Declercq

26 November 2018

The 2018 slowdown

Use the Fed’s hawkish stance tonight to sell US$ .....

Powell: the best friend Trump does not know he has?

Juliette Declercq

6 November 2018

Central Bank - with the fed leading

Use the Fed’s hawkish stance tonight to sell US$ .....

As stocks meddle in US politics...

Juliette Declercq

15 October 2018

Do not worry about financial

Use the Fed’s hawkish stance tonight to sell US$ .....

The hawks are gathering ... and hunting in a pack

Juliette Declercq

26 September 2018

The US$ is caught

Use the Fed’s hawkish stance tonight to sell US$ .....

EM, no resolution before capitulation

Juliette Declercq

6 September 2018

Emerging markets

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
The Sun Also Rises. Ernest Hemingway 1926.

While the markets are away, the Central Banks will play

Juliette Declercq

9 August 2018

The global ZEW

A paradigm shift towards slower growth and more hawkish monetary policy-making…

China bucks the trend with increased policy activism...

Enough water left in lake Powell to cool the US economy?

Juliette Declercq

6 July 2018

As liquidity dries up

As liquidity dries up and a global slowdown ensues, EM remain most vulnerable…...

“What if” – will Trump be re-elected?

Juliette Declercq

13 June 2018

Trump's election was

Will our hero deliver higher wages? How can the Fed help?...

Market forces awakening in Europe?

Juliette Declercq

29 May 2018

Global QT

It would be an error of judgment for the ECB to stand in the way......

“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore...”

Juliette Declercq

30 April 2018

How sustainable is

How long can the fake economy resist?

Juliette Declercq

30 March 2018

Markets are pricing a big change

Michigan: “Households in top 1/3 income tier (the ones spending and owning stocks ...) cited significantly

greater concerns with government economic policy”...

Trump's Trade War -- or just an FX Wolf in sheep's clothing?

Juliette Declercq

15 March 2018

Accelerating employment

First punch them in the face... then negotiate a weak US$...

Powell’s Fed in March: in like a lion and out like a lamb?

Juliette Declercq

27 February 2018

Inflation is a consistent

Is there really a choice?...

2018 Black Monday: Investment Opportunity?

Juliette Declercq

6 February 2018

Higher inflation lower rate

The "Big Short Vol" is finally taking its toll, beware a prolonged equity sell-off as it could become self-fulfilling......

2018: the year of the consumer...

Juliette Declercq

23 January 2018

THe breakdown in the gold

Finally pricing out the post-GFC trauma?...

Sorry Donald, it’s not you: it’s all about the US$...

Juliette Declercq

12 January 2018

Anatomy of a melt up

...

Fed hiking cycle: How much is too much?

Juliette Declercq

5 December 2017

SPX: Running out of good news.png

Stay on front-end curve alert!...

A dangerous time to be complacent about the Fed’s shakeout

Juliette Declercq

21 November 2017

World growth crucially.png

Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure....

Animal spirits – Some stirring, some hibernating...

Juliette Declercq

4 November 2017

In 2017, financial conditions have tightened.png

Watch leverage indicators like a hawk...

Global growth at the whim of the Politburo

Juliette Declercq

12th October 2017

Pre-congress.png

Until inflation expectations start plunging......

Sintra's spirit lives on...

Juliette Declercq

27 September 2017

Is The Fed still accomodative.png

Until inflation expectations start plunging......

Harvey: will the US economy break like the oak or bend like the reed?

Juliette Declercq

5 September 2017

The Euro has moved.png

Washington decides...

The macro case for a weaker USD remains compelling

Juliette Declercq

10 August 2017

US Intermediate.png

Don’t risk missing the 2nd part of JDI’s 2017 best trade: Long EUR and short USD......

Is the 2% target a holy grail?

Juliette Declercq

26 July 2017

Real House Prices.png

Or an accident of history......

Simmering in Sintra

Juliette Declercq

6 July 2017

Low exogenous inflation.png

...Is not a dramatic departure from decades of monetary policy setting...

The safe-haven investment may not be where you think it is...

Juliette Declercq

15 June 2017

UK, US: wages.png

Inclusive capitalism “is about delivering a basic social contract comprised of relative equality of outcomes; equality of opportunity; and fairness across generations”, Mark Carney, BoE....

Contrarian view: The yield bottom may still be ahead of us...

Juliette Declercq

30 May 2017

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

The fiscal stimulus considered by Trump’s administration will not deliver the productivity shock necessary to allow the US to snap out of the growth purgatory...

Contrarian view: The yield bottom may still be ahead of us...

Juliette Declercq

30 May 2017

Globalization: The good news.png

The fiscal stimulus considered by Trump’s administration will not deliver the productivity shock necessary to allow the US to snap out of the growth purgatory...

2017 second best trade: Long EUR? (After long SX5E)

Juliette Declercq

26 April 2017

ISM suggests.png

If voting could change anything, it would have been forbidden a long time ago (Coluche, a late French humorist who had great political ambitions...)...

With a lack of progress on fiscal stimulus, Trump decides to take the helm of the Fed?

Juliette Declercq

13 April 2017

The global output.png

Back to growth purgatory......

Red string of fate ties the US to China

Juliette Declercq

27 March 2017

Income growth leads.png

Is the Fed truly dovish?...

Herd instinct at highs following Trump’s election

Juliette Declercq

10 March 2017

On the necessity to see.png

But growth and reflation may hit a wall in Q2......

My weaker USD call has been received with suspicion

Juliette Declercq

22 February 2017

Is the Greenback undervalued.png

This report delves into the reasons to sell USD with conviction......

The USD should stay on its knees short-term

Juliette Declercq

7 February 2017

Industrial Metals

Running out of reasons to avoid Emerging Markets......

Trump trade: Buy the election, sell the inauguration?

Juliette Declercq

24 January 2017

Globalization killed.png

Sounds "great" but it is much more complicated ......

Long live the American Dream

Juliette Declercq

12 January 2017

One Drive For Business.png

Optimism – more than any policy announcements – is what will revive the macroeconomic cycle...

How hot would you like your economy ?

Juliette Declercq

14 December 2016

NFIB.png

The high pressure economy has never deliberately been experimented, how far is the Fed really willing to go ?...

2017 best trade: Long European equities?

Juliette Declercq

6 December 2016

European Growth Eurostox.png

Being bullish European stocks does not require to be bullish the Euro project......

"Trump will get the job done" ... Will he?

Juliette Declercq

14 November 2016

Tbound short.png

Will he?...

A snapshot of the US economy

Juliette Declercq

19 October 2016

Correlation between bound and equity.png

Is the glass half full or half empty?...

Lost in translation...

Juliette Declercq

19 September 2016

US 5s30s.png

The steepenening temptation returns & QE gets globally priced out...

Should we fear Jackson Hole

Juliette Declercq

22 August 2016

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

Far from explicitly adopting "optimum control" the Fed's reaction function remains one of "Stop and Go". It is soon time for Go, once again......

Central Banks guarantee a prolongation of the status quo …

Juliette Declercq

17 August 2016

No Capex No .png

Expect the liquidity wave to continue to trickle into all asset classes including Emerging Markets (high yielders favoured over the Asian low yielders)...

No paradigm shift toward reflation …

But deflationary tail risks have abated

Juliette Declercq

25 July 2016

European Bank Index.png

In the last report on July 5th, I discussed at length the possibility of Central Banks passing the baton to the Finance Ministries as a main threat to my positive view on long end fixed income at a time when it had largely become consensus......

Populism thrives until it gets to power ...

Juliette Declercq

27 June 2016

G3 CBs Total assets and niflation.png

Secular stagnation is settling in but becoming consensus ......

Seeing the wood for the trees ...

Juliette Declercq

22 June 2016

IP in recession and slack in increasing in the economy.png

Let us all be clear, I have no crystal ball and although I do believe that remain will be the outcome of the referendum; it is also what 90% portfolio managers I speak to believe, which really puts us in a bit of a pickle as to the best way to strategize and monetise a view over the event....

Too early to talk about recession, but high time we started talking about Fed easing …

Juliette Declercq

14 June 2016

SPX - Long Bound breakeven .png

The long bond has continued to be the A trade, over the past week with the USD still caught between flight to safety flows and a less promising domestic macroeconomic backdrop......

It pays to take risk ... re-entering short USD

Juliette Declercq

6 June 2016

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

My view has been more neutral on the USD recently after a successful foray into longs (closed after the hawkish fed minutes) and I have been thinking long and hard about it today. I want to re-enter short USD and decided to pick CAD ......

A tug of war between the medium term and

short term outlook …

Juliette Declercq

3 June 2016

Zero sum game_preview_0bd8b0e5-0ebe-e747-03a2-b7b33bffe6bd.jpeg

Position for an extended purgatory time as the mediocre growth backdrop could last an eternity ......

Back to the future … or not?

Juliette Declercq

26 May 2016

EZ Credit Impulse and Germany.png

As opposed to Dec 2015, the concerted Q1 monetary stimulus and synchronized mini credit cycles offer the ideal window of opportunity for a Fed hike - Risk should remain supported into the June or July hike....

Not much in the way of further USD gains ...

Juliette Declercq

16 May 2016

DXY and DM FX.png

It is tempting to take profit on long USD initiated on the last piece following a great run but the Fed is not likely to show its dovish hand again in the short-term, which means that the trade still has legs for reasons we expose in today's report......

Calling the end of the USD countertrend

Juliette Declercq

5 May 2016

DXY and DM FX.png

I took profit in all USD short versus risk-on FX position last Friday on a view that all my long term price targets had been hit in EM FX and that EUR and JPY strength would cause a VAR shock. I think it is fair to say that this VAR shock has happened. In the process, USD hit a cyclical low before storming back on Tuesday and marking impressive reversal signals (see chart above). A clear inflection point (it is no surprise that it was on the same day die-hard USD bulls started to soften their stance and on the day the controversial Shanghai accord was finally confirmed as part of the new treasury FX report) that most likely marks the end of the 2016 USD bear trend theme that I have been riding successfully since January....

How long can the China “drug high” last?

Juliette Declercq

28 April 2016

Steel and Iron ore 26th April 2016.png

With the perception that China's long awaited and much analyzed economic disaster is still in the making, it has been difficult to embrace fully the market implications of the current debtfueled growth bounce....

US real yields and the resulting global liquidity drive risk

Juliette Declercq

18 April 2016

China: Industrial Production vs Credit.png

Global assets have danced over the past 18months to the rhythm of the perceived tail risks around the 2 largest global growth engine: China and the US...

A Central Bank regime change?

Juliette Declercq

11 April 2016

CB's reflation 11 April 2016_edited_edit

The Fed is the only reflationary game left in town before the BoJ and ECB go to the next stage, but wouldn’t you rather have the Fed have your back than the BoJ and ECB ?...

this is the JDI Research logo with JDI written in orange and research in white writing

At JDI Research, we help you make informed, strategic decisions. Juliette Declercq’s transparent and structured analysis gives you the clarity needed to trade smart, with confidence. With our expertise, you’re always a step ahead.

© 2024 by JDI Research.

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