OUR RESEARCH
On this page, you’ll find synopses of our latest monthly reports. Each provides in-depth analysis of recent global macro events and their impacts, with clearly highlighted associated trade ideas. Exclusive JDI Research charts always complement our analysis, supporting you in trading with conviction.
Who is the real election winner?
... Musk or the US economy?
Juliette Declerq
18th November 2024
A comprehensive analysis of the post-election likely macro backdrop and ramifications to markets.
Beware, the level of uncertainty is high, but I trust that the report will help you make the right investment decisions as we get increasing clarity on the political path ahead.
I will certainly continue updating you along the way.
1. Everyone wants economic growth...
... But how much will they pay for it?
2. Expect an immigration crackdown...
... With whiplash for wages and final demand
3. Building a new kind of wall around the US...
... Are tariffs a key bargaining chip or a foolish bluff?
4. Tax cuts and deregulations...
... Political promises hit the hard truths of reality
5. Curbing the Fed's independence...
... and risk returning to the Dark Age of financial repression?
6. Markets have caught Musk mania...
... But what is the prince of productivity really up to?
Election circus vs economic cycle …
... There is only one winner
Juliette Declerq
24th October 2024
Extract of themes and topics covered and analysed in our October report:
1. Your usual dead-cat bounce, or a statistical miracle ...
... Has the US labour market really turned a corner?
2. Consumer to the rescue ...
... But how long can income and spending prop up the economy?
Too little too late, or better late than never …
... The Fed is dancing with disaster
Juliette Declerq
12th September 2024
Extract of themes and topics covered and analysed in our September report:
1. Was US exceptionalism just a mirage?
... Recession alarm bells are clanging
2. 25bp or 50p on September 18th?
... FOMC members may need to smell fear to stop procrastinating
3. So what about outside the US?
... Recession bells are clanging there, too
From party poppers to cycle stoppers ...
... Take shelter as the US stutters
Juliette Declerq
10 July 2024
Extract of themes and topics covered and analysed in our July report:
1. NFProblems: From a healthy rebalancing ...
... To more sinister late-cycle behaviour
2. "Don't short a dull market" ...
... But shield in TIPS until the storm passes
Between a rock and a hard place ...
Juliette Declerq
4 April 2024
… Have the Fed creeps chosen the least painful mandate?
1. The Fed's dovish stance ...
... Risks its inflation credibility to extend the business cycle
2. Now on high alert for a cyclical inflection ...
... Which will see the Fed compromise its values
Dormant or dodo?
Juliette Declerq
26 January 2024
… Inflation is not extinct just yet.
1. Inflation: Dead or dormant?
... A deep dive into the Fed's reaction function
2. The Euro area recovers but remains a laggard
... Yet, the Fed will likely beat the ECB to the punch.
3. The Bank of England's credibility is the most at risk
... Rates are not restrictive, and is it even targeting 2%?
Rates take five, markets revive ...
Juliette Declerq
20 November 2023
… We can hit snooze on that hard landing.
1. Inflation vanishing act to reawaken the European consumer?
... With a 6-month lag to the US real income sweet spot
2. US: Beyond its economic sweet spot
... A sour aftertaste is the way off: Expect a slow landing
The agelong ascent to the summit...
Juliette Declerq
14 September 2023
… Are restrictive rates finally in reach?
1. Is the Fed's terminal rate finally in sight?
... What will break the economy?
2. If the housing market does not trigger a recession...
... Surely the labour market will?
3. A second inflation wave in the offing?
... Soft landing is now off the cards
What landing?
Juliette Declerq
10 August 2023
Perhaps the recession is already in the rear-view mirror…
1. "Immaculate" disinflation: An obituary
... Fading base effects, stalling goods disinflation and stubborn services inflation
2. Soft landing? What landing?
... Perhaps the recession is already in the rear-view mirror
3. Primed and ready for a reset...
...Will it be the Fitch downgrade or the BoJ lighting the term-premia powder keg?
4. The UK epitomizes the world's inflation problem
... Markets are way too complacent with term premia there
All about wages...
Juliette Declerq
7 July 2023
… with wildly divergent trends from UK to Japan
1. Immaculate headline disinflation
..Just as I expected
2. Disinflation. Act1, Scene2: Pure pleasure
... Stabilising prices and persistent wage gains; Central Banks have achieved the paradoxical feat of stimulating demand with higher rates
3. Disinflation. Act 2, Scene 1: Gloom
... Just as we celebrate the Fed hitting the inflation target, a recession will start
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore...”
Juliette Declerq
30 April 2018
The USD should stay on its knees short-term
Juliette Declerq
7 February 2017
Running out of reasons to avoid Emerging Markets......
No paradigm shift toward reflation …
But deflationary tail risks have abated
Juliette Declerq
25 July 2016
In the last report on July 5th, I discussed at length the possibility of Central Banks passing the baton to the Finance Ministries as a main threat to my positive view on long end fixed income at a time when it had largely become consensus......
Seeing the wood for the trees ...
Juliette Declerq
22 June 2016
Let us all be clear, I have no crystal ball and although I do believe that remain will be the outcome of the referendum; it is also what 90% portfolio managers I speak to believe, which really puts us in a bit of a pickle as to the best way to strategize and monetise a view over the event....
It pays to take risk ... re-entering short USD
Juliette Declerq
6 June 2016
My view has been more neutral on the USD recently after a successful foray into longs (closed after the hawkish fed minutes) and I have been thinking long and hard about it today. I want to re-enter short USD and decided to pick CAD ......
Not much in the way of further USD gains ...
Juliette Declerq
16 May 2016
It is tempting to take profit on long USD initiated on the last piece following a great run but the Fed is not likely to show its dovish hand again in the short-term, which means that the trade still has legs for reasons we expose in today's report......
Calling the end of the USD countertrend
Juliette Declerq
5 May 2016
I took profit in all USD short versus risk-on FX position last Friday on a view that all my long term price targets had been hit in EM FX and that EUR and JPY strength would cause a VAR shock. I think it is fair to say that this VAR shock has happened. In the process, USD hit a cyclical low before storming back on Tuesday and marking impressive reversal signals (see chart above). A clear inflection point (it is no surprise that it was on the same day die-hard USD bulls started to soften their stance and on the day the controversial Shanghai accord was finally confirmed as part of the new treasury FX report) that most likely marks the end of the 2016 USD bear trend theme that I have been riding successfully since January....